The nations recently at war have been Russia and Ukraine, Israel on Gaza in Palestine. Israel on Yemen, Israel on Lebanon, Syria and Iran. There is one thing in common. Both Russia and Israel are nuclear states. Israel unofficially. The others are non-nuclear. This symmetry however is not the same between India and Pakistan as both states are nuclear. There has been a war between the two on May 6/7 which had been halted at the behest of US President Donald Trump, which India denies.
After the war, has been a narrative dished-out by Pakistan, which however did gave it a leverage, as Trump has propped-up that seven fighter jets were destroyed, did not name Indian or Pakistani? But, then Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Award and India did not. Since then, Trump has put 50% tariffs on India and China too. But, his China policy boomeranged! US has scaled down its tariffs rhetoric on China. Announced end to ‘rare-earths roadblock’ from China. But, what always needs to be put into frame is that India and US, read with Israel, are the most natural allies. US has a convergence of interest against China and Israel for the ideology it stands for.
US and India, therefore, have now come together in Kwala Lumpur, Malaysia, to sign a historic military pact with each other on November 1. This is a much enhanced and updated agreement to the one of 2015, now signed between Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his US counterpart Pete Hegseth. If the body-language of Rajnath Singh is analyzed, he seemed to so ‘poised’ to ink the deal, that he almost pulled the agreement-document to put his initials. By any standard India is now set to unsettle Pakistan as the war bugle is gaining ground by every day. India has maintained that Operation Sindoor launched in the wake of Pahalgam killings of April 22, on May 6 is not over and set to roll-into.
What advantages will this deal accrue to India? The first to consider are the timings as war between India and Pakistan is almost getting certain, plus US is also scurrying after the failure of tariff politics on China, this has automatically forced US to sign the deal. China had stood by Pakistan in the first May round, this is what India wants US to help blunt this time around, of course to be supplemented by Israel too, in terms of technological warfare etc, as US is now firstly supposed to provide real-time-intelligence to India, the same what China had given to Pakistan, and also to provide India with modern military backups, intelligence-sharing, in air, sea, cyber and space disciplines. Unlike in the first phase, which got halted on Trump’s initiative, this time India wants to start raids from all the four-fronts and then make its military move into Pakistan’s controlled side of Kashmir (since 1948). Drones and missiles had then attacked Pakistan but this time around a new strategy is afloat.
After this agreement US will certainly help India fill the technological gap, supposedly provided by China to Pakistan. US, on its side, want to gain India’s confidence so-much-so that India abandons its all time defence partner Russia and end up buying US F 35 fighter jets instead of Russian SU-57, something which India had rebuffed in August . Therefore, India right now is definitely into a commanding position, it will seek real-time-data from US of Pakistan military sites, drones stocks etc, take fullest US advantage and will in the same vein also put US to test on Indian terms. Soon there may be now a PM Narendra Modi and Trump photo session too. Unlike when PM Modi did not pick-up Trump’s phone calls on four occasions. It will soon be a past story when India will no longer listen to Trump towards any new ceasefire or mediation call, in case the war breaks out anew.
There are no second guesses as to who is responsible for this US-India renewed bonhomie, if not Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who had gone on record in August to say that US and India need to be friends again. He had offered to give advice in private to Modi on how to handle Trump, as both are “terrific friends with so much common ground”. What is the common goal then? It is now a far too visible fact that all the Arab nations stood muted to the Israel onslaught on Gazans in Palestine, only due to US pressure, and therefore, Israel will use US against Pakistan for India purpose. Only Iran, a permanent foe to Israel and US alike, is the challenge in Middle East. Pakistan, being a nuclear-power is the next challenge to Israel, which India can put-into-order.
There are reports pouring-in that US is to officially go for a nuclear-test, which Trump has claimed that Russia, China, Pakistan and North Korea have done, but not declared. China has denied. Pakistan is silent. Why has Pakistan done it, that too, underground, if not to send a signal to India, is what would make India formulate a new strategy now. If Ukraine launches long-range missiles on Russia, Russia is to put its nuclear warheads into use against Europe, and by now it is clear, that India-Pakistan were going for a nuclear-war in May, which Trump claims to have averted, has now acquired a new meaning. Trump, did not name any nation to have brought fighter jets of each other (India-Pakistan) down, now has hinted to visit India.
With Netanyahu and Trump to be in India in-togetherness, the one-upmanship for US/Israel
***
The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.
