The geo-politics has hit Pakistan where it hits the hardest. Gone are the days, when Pakistan and China were to threaten India towards a two and a half front war which would indulgently mean China from Northeast, Pakistan from West and fomenting internal troubles in India too. India, after May 6/7 Operation Sindoor, against Pakistan, which halted in a ceasefire, could witness all tables turned! India had supported anti-Afghan Taliban (AT) regimes for more than two decades, took a paradigm shift and invited Afghanistan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Mutaqqi to New Delhi on October 10 in what may be the biggest geo-strategic move in recent years.
Almost as Mutaqqi was on his way there were deadly fights between Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Pakistan army which saw 11 Pakistan soldiers getting killed including a Lt. Col. and a Major, 19 TTP members were also killed. Three days later, while Mutaqqi was in New Delhi, TTP killed 20 more Pakistan army men and three civilians. Since, then there have been a ceasefire, talks, failed talks etc, between the two, facilitated by Qatar/Turkey as AT refuse to acknowledge Durand Line as a de facto border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan accuses AT to be in support of TTP which AT denies. While there is already a disturbance from what was once referred as ‘strategic-depth’, between the two, India is readying for Operation Sindoor 2.0, which US President claims to have ended in the first round. India had attacked Pakistan, in the wake of April 22 Pahalgam attack in Kashmir.
Trump has perhaps since then reiterated around 40 times to have meddled the ceasefire, India denies it, he later imposed 50 % tariffs on India, as penalty and for buying Russian oil, but why is Trump bent upon claiming ceasefire for so many times? Except if not to instigate India to attack Pakistan again. Notably PM Narendra Modi has cleared the stand that India is no more to be blackmailed by any nuclear threat. Both India and Pakistan are nuclear states.
If Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Army Chief General Upendra Diwedi, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan and Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh recent body-posturing is put into perspective, it can easily be construed that India may soon resume fresh attacks. Modi’s visit to INS Vikrant at Goa on Diwali, Rajnath Singh to Jaisalmer, Rajasthan, to oversee war preparedness, leaves little speculation that either Indian navy is to first attack Pakistan’s Karachi port or an attack would come from Rajasthan side. Of course, this is to be complimented by Indian troops entering the Pakistan side of Kashmir. Modi government has long claimed to snatch Kashmir from under Pakistan since 1948.
What is to be the next likely scenario on the Af-Pak front? If AT and Pakistan are to fight, then, from where is AT to get the supply of weapons? Russia? Russia was one of the first to recognize AT government or may be here India might supply arms to AT, as after all, enemy’s enemy is a friend. This is going to a game-changer in geo-politics, as Russia, which helped AT topple the US presence from Afghanistan in 2020, will be able to equal scores with Pakistan, as it was Pakistan which led US arms supplies into Afghanistan to oust Russian troops (1979-89) and the greatest loss will end up with China! As it is China which has promised to invest billions of US dollars worth its projects in Afghanistan’s oil production, China-Afghanistan railway project, gold-mining, pine nut processing, cement factory agreements etc. If there is to be a full-stop, it would be a double-whammy for India as well as for US. Both US and India have, from the very beginning, opposed China’s most ambitious project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
If this AT and Pakistan war breaks, a truce has however been announced again, it has to be a long war as AT have a history of expertise in guerilla warfare and this is where India may chip-into as it would be the most opportune time for it. It will be too cumbersome for Pakistan to see a war on both of its sides. Perhaps, never in the history a two front war has become such a close reality for Pakistan. The Pakistan hullabaloo, after the May conflict, had sky rocketed as twice its Field Marshall Asim Munir could meet Trump, International Monetary Fund gave a 1 billion USD loan, World Bank gave a 40 billion USD loan package, Asian Development Bank extended 800 million credit line and Pakistan also got a seat at UN Security Council as a non-permanent member. Apart from this Pakistan was also smarting its international limelight after it had penned a mutual defence-agreement with Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), all has become dismal after the latest spate of its killings with AT.
Given the intensity of preparedness it is now as if India is almost into the groove for a war. The Trishul tri-military exercises are underway until November 10. An estimated around 20,000 troops, towards joint operational capability and strategic preparedness of army, navy, and the air force is in progress along Gujarat and Rajasthan, at Pakistan borders. The new flashpoint might be Sir Creek on Gujarat border. Massive training are being focused on night warfare capabilities on South Western Command and Army has declared that any terrorist attack will be treated as an Act of War.
During the May conflict India could not gather any open and overt support from any country, of course Israel stood by India, while Turkey and Azerbaijan went ahead with Pakistan. This time, India and made yet another break through, despite the tariffs brouhaha, India and US have made a ten-years defence pact. This spells the convergence of India-US common interests over China. The other player, step by step with India is Israel. India, has put pragmatism-first and in its wake 4 high-profile Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, are to visit India from November onwards. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, visit will take place in early November, to be followed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in December. Defense Minister Katz will join in early 2026. India is unfazed by International Criminal Court of Justice have issued warrants to arrest Netanyahu.
What is to happen next is what the world awaits. Russia-Ukraine war has not halted. Israel-Gaza conflict has been ended after two-years, and there is a tension brewing between US and China in South China sea over Taiwan. Will India and Pakistan add to the already boiled-up war theatres? Let’s see.
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The writer is a former UP State Information Commissioner and writes on international issues.
